Alimentación de modelos cuantitativos con información subjetiva: aplicación Delphi en la elaboración de un modelo de imputación del gasto turístico individual en Catalunya

El presente artículo presenta un estudio realizado para el Institut d'Estadística de Catalunya, donde se ha aplicado una técnica que trabaja con información subjetiva (el Método Delphi) para obtener unos datos que puedan ser empleados en la alimentación parcial de un modelo matemático, que se nutre principalmente de datos estadísticos (objetivos), con el fin de incrementar la utilidad global del modelo. El artículo justifica la utilización en determinadas circunstancias de la información subjetiva, describe el método Delphi y plantea una serie de proposiciones referentes a la utilidad, empleo y mejora de esta técnica que se ven refrendadas en el caso expuesto

Numerical simulations of thixotropic semi-solid aluminium alloys in open-rotor and rotor-stator mixers

This research uses the Bautista-Manero-Puig (BMP) model to examine flow patterns of semi-solid aluminium alloys (Al) in open-rotor and stator-rotor mixers via numerical solutions. The model captures the distinct thixo-viscoelastic behavior of the Al-alloys at low temperatures, near melting point. The analysis involves using 2D structured-meshes for open-rotor and rotor-stator geometries. Solutions for Newtonian and thixo-viscoelastic model fluids are reported through fields of velocity, strain-rate, stress, fluidity, and streamlines, revealing distinct features. Findings reveal nonlinear thixo-viscoelastic vortex patterns that vary with rotational speed, resulting in different fluidity and stress profiles compared to the invariant response of Newtonian fluids. At lower rotational speeds, rotor-pallets are dominated by structured material that gradually becomes unstructured to cover the outer vessel walls. When including a stator, the inner stator region resembles the Newtonian solution, but the outflow through stator gaps is reduced due to flow-structure levels outside. This information is of interest for industrial design and optimization of molten Al-alloy processing.Programa de Transferencia de Tecnología de la DFB FEDER Consejo Nacional de Ciencias, Humanidades y Tecnologı́as (CONAHCYT, Mexico) Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México UNA

Modelación y análisis no lineal de muros estructurales de hormigón armado

The severe damage and collapse of many reinforced concrete (RC) wall buildings observed in recent earthquakes in Chile (2010) and New Zealand (2011) showed that RC walls did not perform as required by the building codes of both countries. In this context, it is necessary to intensify the research efforts towards more precise simulations of damage indicators, particularly of local engineering demand parameters, such as material strains, which are fundamental for the application of the Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) methodology. The main goal of this study is to propose an analytical nonlinear model capable of simulating the response of isolated reinforced concrete walls at a global and local level. This work compared different response parameters obtained from nonlinear analysis of RC walls subjected to cyclic loads, using finite element models developed with DIANA software. The modeling approach was validated with experimental data from two RC walls. A sensitivity analysis of the seismic response parameters to uncertain modeling variables such as the compressive fracture energy of unconfined and confined concrete, among others, was also performed. The analytical models adequately captured the lateral force-displacement relationship, stiffness degradation, and the profile of vertical strains at the base of the walls for different levels of demand. The sensitivity analysis showed that the dispersion of the local response is greater than the dispersion in the global response when considering different modeling parameters. Dispersion increases as the level of demand increases. Manuscript received: October 7, 2021Manuscript accepted: November 18, 2021El daño severo y el colapso de edificios de muros de hormigón armado (HA) observado en terremotos recientes en Chile (2010) y Nueva Zelanda (2011) mostraron que los muros de HA no se desempeñaron acorde a la exigencia de los códigos de ambos países.  En este contexto es necesario intensificar los esfuerzos de investigación hacia simulaciones más precisas de los indicadores de daños, particularmente de los parámetros de demanda ingenieril local, como deformaciones del material, que son fundamentales para la aplicación del método de ingeniería sísmica basada en desempeño. El objetivo principal de este estudio es proponer un modelo analítico no lineal capaz de simular la respuesta de muros aislados de hormigón armado a nivel global y local. Este trabajo comparó diferentes parámetros de respuesta obtenidos del análisis no lineal de muros de HA sometidos a cargas cíclicas, mediante modelos de elementos finitos desarrollados en el programa DIANA. El enfoque de modelado se validó con datos experimentales de dos muros de HA. Se realizó también un análisis de sensibilidad de los parámetros de respuesta sísmica a las variables de modelado inciertas como la energía de fractura en compresión del hormigón no confinado y confinado, entre otras. Los modelos analíticos capturaron adecuadamente la relación fuerza lateral-desplazamiento, la degradación de la rigidez y el perfil de deformaciones verticales en la base de los muros para diferentes niveles de demanda. El análisis de sensibilidad indicó que la dispersión de la respuesta local es mayor que la dispersión en la respuesta global, al considerar diferentes parámetros de modelado. La dispersión aumenta a medida que aumenta el nivel de demanda. Artículo recibido: 7 de octubre de 2021 Artículo aceptado: 18 de noviembre de 202

BFL1 Modulates Apoptosis at the Membrane Level through a Bifunctional And Multimodal Mechanism Showing Key Differences With BCLXL

BFL1 is a relatively understudied member of the BCL2 protein family which has been implicated in the pathogenesis andchemoresistance of a variety of human cancers, including hematological malignancies and solid tumours. BFL1 is generallyconsidered to have an antiapoptotic function, although its precise mode of action remains unclear. By quantitativelyanalyzing BFL1 action in synthetic membrane models and in cells, we found that BFL1 inhibits apoptosis through threedistinct mechanisms which are similar but not identical to those of BCLXL, the paradigmatic antiapoptotic BCL2 familyprotein. Strikingly, alterations in lipid composition during apoptosis activate a prodeath function of BFL1 that is based onnoncanonical oligomerization of the protein and breaching of the permeability barrier of the outer mitochondrial membrane(OMM). This lipid-triggered prodeath function of BFL1 is absent in BCLXL and also differs from that of the apoptoticeffector BAX, which sets it apart from other BCL2 family members. Ourfindings support a new model in which BFL1modulates apoptosis through a bifunctional and multimodal mode of action that is distinctly regulated by OMM lipidscompared to BCLXL.This work was supported by Grants BFU2011-28566 from the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad and IT838-13 from Gobierno Vasco. HFR is a recipient of a predoctoral fellowship from the Ministerio de Educacion (Spain). We also thank to LE facility technician in the Achucarro Basque Center for Neuroscience for the support in STED experiments. Finally, we thank Dr. Frank Essmann and Prof. Klaus Schulze-Osthoff for providing the HCT116 BAX/BAK DKO cells and Prof. Jean Claude Martinou for HCT116 CL KO cells

The Delphi technique in ecology and biological conservation: Applications and guidelines

1. Many areas of science, including conservation and environmental management, regularly require engaging stakeholders or experts to produce consensus or technical inputs. The Delphi technique is an iterative and anonymous participatory method used for gathering and evaluating such expert-based knowledge. 2. We outline the methodology of the Delphi technique and provide a taxonomy of its main variants. In addition, we refine the technique by providing suggestions to address common limitations (e.g. time consumption, attrition rate) in order tomake the method more suitable for application in ecology and conservation. 3. A comprehensive search for studies that have applied the Delphi technique in conservation and environmental management resulted in 36 papers. The Delphi technique has been applied to a range of issues, including developing decision support systems and predicting ecological impacts of climate change. 4. The papers reviewed suggest that the Delphi technique is an efficient, inclusive, systematic and structured approach that can be used to address complex issues. A major strength compared to other group-based techniques is the reduced influence of social pressures among respondents. 5. The Delphi technique is relatively little used and seems undervalued. Given its wide range of possible applications, it could be applied more widely in evaluating evidence and providing expert judgments.The authors would like to thank Pinaki Bhattacharya, Maria Voigt, Francisco Benitez-Capistros and the three anonymous reviewers for their significant contributions in improving the earlier manuscript. WJS is funded by Arcadia. NM and JH were funded by the Belgian National Science Foundation (FNRS), MIS ID 1765914 project. NM was also funded by the Fondation Weiner Anspach (FWA) postdoctoral fellowship.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.1238

Linking NHS data for pediatric pharmacovigilance: Results of a Delphi survey

Background: Adverse drug events are a major cause of patient safety incidents. Current systems of pharmacovigilance under-report adverse drug reactions (ADRs), especially in children, leading to delays in their identification. This is of particular concern, as children especially have an increased vulnerability toADRs. Objectives: The objective was to seek consensus among healthcare professionals (HCPs) about barriers and facilitators to the linkage of routinely collected health data for pediatric pharmacovigilance in Scotland. Methods: A Delphi survey was conducted with a random sample of HCPs including nurses, pharmacists and doctors, working in primary or secondary care, in Scotland. Participants were identified from sampling frames of the target professionals such as an NHS workforce list for general practitioners and recruited by postal invitation. A total of 819 HCPs were invited to take part. Those agreeing to participate were given the option of completing the questionnaires online or as hard copy. Reminders were sent twice at a fortnightly interval. Questions content included description of professional role as well as testing for the willingness to support the proposed project and was informed by the Theoretical Domains Framework of Behavior Change (TDF) and earlier qualitative work. Three Delphi rounds were administered, including a first round for item generation. Results: 121 of those invited agreed to take part (15%). The first round of the Delphi study included 21 open questions and generated over a 1000 individual statements from 61 participants that returned the questionnaires (50.4%). These were rationalized to 149 items for the second round in which participants rated their views on the importance (or not) of each item on a 9-point Likert scale (strongly disagree - strongly agree). After the third round, there was consensus on items that focused on professional standards, and practical requirements, overall there was support for data linkage and a multi-professional approach. Conclusions: It would be acceptable to stakeholders to introduce a data linkage system for pharmacovigilance as long as identified concerns are addressed. Concerns included adherence to current professional, legal and ethical standards, as well resolving practical issues

Towards a framework for work package allocation for GSD

Proceeding of: Proceeding of: OTM 2011 Workshops: Confederated International Workshops and Posters: EI2N+NSF ICE, ICSP+INBAST, ISDE, ORM, OTMA, SWWS+MONET+SeDeS, and VADER 2011, Hersonissos, Crete, Greece, October 17-21, 2011Global software development is an inexorable trend in the software industry. The impact of the trend in conventional software development can be found in many of its aspects. One of them is task or work package allocation. Task allocation was traditionally driven by resource competency and availability but GSD introduces new complexities to this process including time-zones differences, costs and cultural differences. In this work a report on the construction of a framework for work-package allocation within GSD projects is presented. This framework lies on three main pillars: individual and organizational competency, organizational customization and sound assessment methods.This work is supported by the Spanish Centro para el Desarrollo Tecnológico Industrial (CDTI) under the Eureka Project E! 6244 PROPS-Tour and the national cooperation project SEM-IDi (IDI-20091150)